Models and Theories in Human-Computer Interaction/Business forecasting with Accelerated Returns
Kurzweil in Business (Richard Lee)Edit
Kurzweil’s view of our longstanding perception of technological growth is captured in his Intuitive Linear View, which can be illustrated by one’s inability to perceive curvature of the earth due to the limiting viewpoint relative to the scope of the curvature itself.
His explanation of the Law of Accelerated Returns makes a lot of sense to me (up to a certain point - event horizons are tough to see past). In particular, the idea of chained paradigm shifts seems applicable to business - re: his note on Moore’s Law being but the latest in 5 similar ‘laws’ when examining exponential grown in cost per calculation since the 1800s. In short, as many web properties have grown, their revenue growth (via current paradigm) has exploded at first, then seen diminished growth (in exponential terms) until they collapse under their own weight or find a new paradigm for growth. It seems likely that this could be used to determine WHEN such points are to occur and to prepare for them as best as possible. The inverse could be leveraged as well, inspecting competitors or even entire markets to determine when disruptive events are likely to occur and acting accordingly.