Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Guangzhou Metro

1 Introduction

Guangzhou City, commonly known as Guangzhou, abbreviated as Guang, Sui, and Yangcheng, is the provincial capital and sub-provincial city of Guangdong Province, the People's Republic of China, and one of the first batch of coastal open cities. Guangzhou Metro is the urban rail transit system of Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China. The operation scope of Guangzhou Metro covers Guangzhou City and Foshan City. As of January 2024, Guangzhou Metro has 16 operation lines and 8 under construction. Currently, 653km of Guangzhou’s local subway network is under construction, with a length of approximately 171.5km.

2 Quantitative Analysis

8.7.2024 Date source= To analyze the development history of the Guangzhou subway and the role of the subway in the urban development process of Guangzhou, the average annual number of subway passengers in Guangzhou from 1997 to 2023, the subway mileage from 1997 to 2023 and the permanent population of Guangzhou from 1997 to 2023 were selected Growth data. The following Table 1 is the population of Guangzhou, Table 2 is the mileage of the subway in Guangzhou, and Table 3 is the annual number of passengers on the Guangzhou subway.

Table 1 Guangzhou population,1997 to 2022(in millions)

Year	population	Year	population
1997	6.6293	2010	12.7096
1998	6.7047	2011	13.4632
1999	6.8076	2012	14.1553
2000	9.948	2013	14.7224
2001	9.9675	2014	15.2902
2002	9.8476	2015	15.9495
2003	9.7293	2016	16.7838
2004	9.6606	2017	17.4627
2005	9.4968	2018	17.9044
2006	9.9666	2019	18.3059
2007	10.5301	2020	18.6766
2008	11.1534	2021	18.8106
2009	11.8697	2022	18.7341

Table 2 Guangzhou Metro mileage ,1997 to 2023(in kms)

Year	Metro mileage	Year	Metro mileage
1997	5.4	2011	236
1998	5.4	2012	236
1999	18.5	2013	260
2000	18.5	2014	266
2001	18.5	2015	266
2002	24.7	2016	308.7
2003	36.8	2017	390.6
2004	36.8	2018	478
2005	54.7	2019	515
2006	108.2	2020	515
2007	113.2	2021	607.6
2008	118.2	2022	643.1
2009	147	2023	652.81
2010	236

Table 3 Guangzhou Annual Transit Ridership ,1997 to 2023(in millions)

Year	Annual Riders	Year	Annual Riders
1997	7.2	2011	1644.982
1998	36.5	2012	1853.2145
1999	33.5	2013	2053.9645
2000	64.423	2014	2277.892
2001	63.656	2015	2406.9195
2002	66.101	2016	2561.3145
2003	122.165	2017	2802.543
2004	163.994	2018	3025.9595
2005	213.525	2019	3305.878
2006	280.685	2020	2405.934
2007	473.003	2021	2834.0425
2008	599.001	2022	2358
2009	674.9945	2023	3130
2010	1177.782

Afterthat use the data to estimate a three-parameter logistic function:

S(t) = K/[1+exp(-b(t-to))]

Where:

S(t)is the priedicted data

K is the carrying capacity of the system (in our case, the maximum number of rides&the maxmum number of population )

T is time(years)

T₀ is the year in which 1/2 K is achieved

The S(t) formula can be formed to:

LN( Ridership/(K - Ridership))=bt+c or LN( Metro mileage/(K - Metro mileage))=bt+c

The K value in the above formula is a measure of saturation. Since the Guangzhou Metro has not reached saturation, the least squares method is used to find the value of K. The following two tables show the K value of Guangzhou Annual Transit Ridership and the K value of Guangzhou population respectively.

Table 4 Determine the value of K(Annual Ridership)

K	3500	3400	3600	37000	3800	3666	3680	3670	3660	3665
INTERCEPT ( c )	--583.72166564	--606.3184288	--567.69558728	--555.0497784	--544.58058609	--559.0622599	--557.37804564	--558.57630201	--559.79851955	--559.1843555
b	0.28987325366	0.30116262591	0.28186199007	0.27553739287	0.27029905322	0.27754448936	0.27670206035	0.27730142302	0.27791274321	0.27760555842
RSQ	0.92003091063	0.91123563499	0.92218888595	0.92239324789	0.92181910192	0.92244572058	0.92243600635	0.92244479139	0.92244418256	0.92244571207
t_i=c/-b	2013.713436	2013.2592049	2014.0906091	2014.4263275	2014.7336056	2014.3158352	2014.3617468	2014.329014	2014.2959732	2014.3125328

Table 5 Determine the value of K(Population)

K	20	21	27	28	29	27.5
INTERCEPT ( c )	--275.59589499	--239.56009623	--164.50808655	--158.95070584	--154.17391707	--161.61987879
b	0.13753191429	0.11949833073	0.081819023562	0.079016546914	0.076605257987	0.08036291408
RSQ	0.92956246625	0.94624101691	0.96110828442	0.96113060962	0.96102356906	0.96113943623
t_i=c/-b	0.072570021411	0.087660676093	0.16412567045	0.17615524167	0.18809926186	0.17015233649

2.2 Analysis

The life cycle phases are shown in Figure 1, Figure 2, and Figure 3. It can be seen from Figure 1 that the current passenger travel volume of Guangzhou Metro is close to the mature stage. The first half of the existing data is in good agreement with the S-curve. However, there was a significant decline in passenger travel between 2019 and 2020. This is due to the impact of covid-19. During this period, a series of policies limited the number of subway trips and the development of Guangzhou's subway.

Figure 1 S-curve of the Guangzhou Metro Ridership

Figure 2 shows the distance of Guangzhou subway operation mileage. There are two stages in the figure where the mileage increased rapidly. One is around 2010, when Guangzhou hosted the Asian Games, so policies were supportive at this time. The second is between 2016 and 2019. During this stage, the annual average mileage of Guangzhou Metro The number of trips is also increasing dramatically. Basically, the average annual number of trips is positively correlated with the total operating mileage of the subway.

At the same time, there is always a plateau period 1 to 2 years before and after each rapid increase in mileage. This is a characteristic of the subway mode of transportation. A subway requires a certain amount of time to plan and construct, as well as a lot of investment. This is also the reason why subways are not suitable for small and medium-sized cities.

Figure 2 The improve of Guangzhou Metro mileage

Figure 3 shows the population growth curve of Guangzhou. The first half is basically consistent with the S-curve, but in the second half the population growth may be slowly slowed down by factors such as social, economic, cultural, and city size. Therefore, the second half of the curve may not conform to the change pattern of S-curve.

Figure 3 The population & predicted population

Regression Results

Table 6 Regression Results for Ridership

Regression Statistics
K	3666
INTERCEPT	--559.0622599
R Square	0.92244572058
b	0.27754448936
tought	2014.3158352

Table 7 Regression Results for Population

Regression Statistics
K	27.5
INTERCEPT	--161.61987879
R Square	0.96113943623
b	0.08036291408
tought	2011.1251644

3 Qualitative Analysis

3.1 Mode description

In 1863, the first subway opened in London, England. Before the advent of the subway, the main way people traveled was by horse-drawn carriage. Compared with carriages, buses and other travel modes, the advantages of the subway are: 1. The subway has a large transportation capacity compared to other modes of transportation. 2. The subway has a high punctuality rate. 3. Traveling by the subway takes less time. 4. The space required by the subway is mainly Underground space reduces the use of above ground space.

As the urban population continues to increase, subways have increasingly become a major indicator of whether a city can become an international metropolis. The sensational effect generated by the subway, the increase in popularity along the line, and the adsorption effect on people's livelihood facilities such as residential buildings, commercial outlets, star-rated hotels, cultural, educational and health facilities, urban complexes, etc. are difficult to match by any public transportation means.

While it has the above advantages, the subway also has many shortcomings: large investment, long construction period, and high operation and maintenance costs. The biggest flaw is the large loss area and high amount of losses. Especially in some cities with a small total passenger flow or characterized by tidal passenger flow, the subway will not only fail to create the economic benefits it deserves, but will also make local debts tighter.

3.1.1 Broad service coverage area

Guangzhou Metro is currently one of the most extensive and attractive subway systems in the world. Guangzhou Metro is currently the third largest urban rail transit system in mainland China and the third largest urban rail transit system in the world. As of December 28, 2023, Guangzhou Metro currently has 271 operating stations covering 12 administrative districts in Guangzhou and Chancheng District, Nanhai District, and Shunde District in Foshan City. The following is the specific information of each line of Guangzhou Metro.

Line	Terminals		Commencement	Newest	Length	Stations	Depots/
	(District)			Extension	km		Stabling Sidings
1	Xilang	Guangzhou East Railway Station	1997	1999	18.5	16	Xilang
	(Liwan)	(Tianhe)
2	Guangzhou South Railway Station	Jiahewanggang	2002	2010	31.8	24	Jiahe/Dazhou
	(Panyu)	(Baiyun)
3	Panyu Square	Airport North (Terminal 2) (Huadu)	2005	2018	68.5	30	Jiahe/Xiajiao
	(Panyu)	Tianhe Coach Terminal (Tianhe)
4	Nansha Passenger Port	Huangcun	2005	2017	60	23	Xinzao
	(Nansha)	(Tianhe)
5	Jiaokou	Huangpu New Port	2009	2023	41.7	30	Yuzhu/Shuanggang
	(Liwan)	(Huangpu)
6	Xunfenggang	Xiangxue	2013	2016	41.7	31	Xunfenggang/Luogang
	(Baiyun)	(Huangpu)
7	Meidi Dadao	Yanshan	2016	2023	54.24	27	Dazhou/Yifeng/Jitang
	(Shunde, Foshan)	(Huangpu)
8	Jiaoxin	Wanshengwei	2003	2020	33.9	28	Baiyunhu
	(Baiyun)	(Haizhu)
9	Fei'eling	Gaozeng	2017	—	20.1	11	Qishan
	(Huadu)	(Baiyun)
13	Yuzhu	Xinsha	2017	—	28.3	11	Yuzhu/Guanhu
	(Huangpu)	(Zengcheng)
14	Jiahewanggang (Baiyun)	Dongfeng (Conghua)	2017	2018	75.4	22	Shihu/Zhenlong/Dengcun
	Xinhe (Baiyun)	Zhenlong (Huangpu)
18	Xiancun	Wanqingsha	2021	—	58.3	8	Longzhen/Wanqingsha
	(Tianhe)	(Nansha)
21	Yuancun	Zengcheng Square	2018	2019	61.5	21	Zhenlong/Xiangling
	(Tianhe)	(Zengcheng)
22	Chentougang	Panyu Square	2022	—	18.2	4	Longzhen/Chentougang
	(Panyu)	(Panyu)
APM	Canton Tower	Linhexi	2010	—	4	9	Chigang Pagoda
	(Haizhu)	(Tianhe)
Guangfo	Xincheng Dong	Lijiao	2010	2018	39.6	25	Xianan
	(Shunde, Foshan)	(Haizhu)

3.1.2 Comfortable ride experience

In order to give passengers a better riding experience, Guangzhou Metro has added many humanized measures.

1. Female carriages: Guangzhou Metro will pilot female carriages on Line 1 starting from June 28, 2017. During the period of 07:30 to 09:30 and 17:00 to 19:00 on weekdays (excluding holidays), the last carriage of Guangzhou Metro Line 1 towards Guangzhou East Station and the first carriage towards Xilong Set as women's compartment.

2. Mother and baby room: At the end of 2016, Guangdong Metro built the first mother and baby room on a pilot basis at Guangdong South Station. Starting from 2017, maternal and child rooms will be set up at newly opened line stations. Since 2018, Guangzhou Metro has also overcome difficulties such as limited station space, insufficient water, electricity, ventilation, and passenger flow lines on existing lines, and added independent maternal and child rooms at stations that meet the conditions for renovation on existing lines.

As of May 2022, a total of 145 maternal and infant rooms have been built on the Guangzhou Metro line network, serving more than 1,000 maternal and infant passengers on average every day, including Guangzhou South Railway Station, Nansha Passenger Transport Port Station, Huadu Square Station, Airport North Station, and Conghua Passenger Transport Station A total of 6 stations including Zengcheng Square Station and Zengcheng Square Station were awarded Guangzhou Maternity and Infant Room Demonstration Sites.

3.1.3 Diverse ticketing methods

Guangzhou Metro supports a variety of ticket purchasing methods, including one-way tickets, day tickets, bus codes, credit cards, Apple pay, and facial recognition. There are a total of 8 ticket purchasing methods. Among them, the facial recognition entry function used in the east extension of Guangzhou Metro Line 5 and the second phase of Line 7 in December 2023 will also be a new direction for the future development of ticketing in various subway systems.

3.2 Technology

3.2.1 Evolution mechanism and prevention and control mechanism of major risks in urban rail transit operations

Guangzhou Metro has achieved technological breakthroughs in five aspects : First, it has overcome the panoramic scanning monitoring and early warning technology for fires in high-speed trains running in long distances, and achieved accurate monitoring and early warning of fires in running trains; second, it has broken through the vehicle-ground collaborative detection of objects beyond visual range intrusion limits. and risk analysis technology to achieve vehicle-ground coordinated over-the-horizon dynamic and accurate identification; the third is to overcome intelligent flood prediction and early warning and dynamic prevention and control decision-making technology to achieve rapid spatial-temporal early warning and prevention of the full flow path in sudden flooding tunnels; the fourth is to break through Induced network passenger flow risk prevention and control technology for passengers-train-line network-information collaboration realizes the reconstruction of network passenger flow induction paths; fifthly, establishes "scenario-response" digital emergency response auxiliary decision-making technology to support joint prevention of major operational risks Joint control.

3.2.2 signal system

In terms of signaling system, Guangzhou Metro Lines 1, 2, and 8 adopt the Siemens FTGS train operation control system, and other lines adopt the CBTC train operation control system. Among them, the CBTC train operation control system used by Guangzhou Metro Line 7 is fully Chinese. The development and application of the MTC-I type CBTC train operation control system with independent intellectual property rights has broken the monopoly of foreign manufacturers on China's urban rail transit signaling systems for more than ten years.

3.3 The role of policy in birthing phase

3.3.1 The role of policies in overall development

In the early stages of Guangzhou's subway construction, it received support from many policies. In 1984, the Guangzhou Metro Preparatory Office drew on the experience of the Hong Kong Metro and proposed for the first time in the country the idea of "focusing on transportation, taking into account civil defense" and building subway lines on major transportation corridors, and received approval from relevant departments. This change in design thinking has brought Guangzhou subway construction into the fast lane. Subsequently, Guangzhou began to compile subway network planning and engineering plans. Through policy support, the initial planning of the Guangzhou Metro is to develop along the line based on the TOD model. This played a guiding role in development in the early stage.

The policy guidance of the "Recent Line Network Planning and Implementation Adjustment Plan in 2000" issued in 1997 proposed to give priority to the construction of Lines 3 and 4 that have been modified to go deep into the south to support urban development. On December 29, 2002, the first section of Line 2 was opened for trial operation. Since then, the "Ten" track network of Guangzhou Metro has been initially formed. At present, the construction of the basic framework of Guangzhou Metro in all directions has been initially completed. On this basis, due to the overall urban expansion of Guangzhou and the bid to host the 2010 Asian Games, the development of Guangzhou Metro has entered its peak period.

In August 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission officially approved the "Guangzhou Urban Rapid Rail Transit Recent Construction Plan" and agreed to build multiple lines between 2005 and 2010 with a total length of 127.6 kilometers.

In February 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the "Guangzhou City Recent Construction Plan Adjustment" (2005-2012), agreeing to make appropriate adjustments to the construction tasks and goals of the July 2005 "Guangzhou City Rapid Rail Transit Recent Construction Plan".

In July 2012, the National Development and Reform Commission approved Guangzhou’s recent urban rail transit construction plan (2012-2018). Only the northern extension of Line 8 and Line 11 are urban lines, and the rest are suburban radial lines.

In order to meet the development needs of Guangfo City, in 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the construction of the first phase adjustment section of Line 7. This line connects the two cities of Guangzhou and Foshan, further deepening the connection between the two cities.

On July 30, 2020, the "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Intercity Railway Construction Plan" was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. At this point, policy development will be more inclined to support the lines linking Guangzhou City and the Greater Bay Area, including the southern extension of the original Line 18 (Nansha to Zhongshan (Zhuhai) intercity, 79km), the northern extension of Line 18 (from Guangzhou east to Huadu-Tiangui intercity, 38km), the northern extension of Line 22 (intercity from Fangcun to Baiyun Airport, 39km) and the original Line 28 (intercity from Foshan via Guangzhou to Dongguan, 107km).

3.3.2 Changes in charging policy

According to Guangzhou’s public transportation fare discount adjustment plan, starting from September 1, 2023, the preferential policies for Guangzhou subways and buses will change. The following are the new preferential plans:

Ordinary passengers who spend more than 80 yuan but less than 200 yuan on the Guangzhou subway and buses in a calendar month will enjoy a 20% discount.

If it exceeds 200 yuan, you will enjoy a 50% discount.

This means more discounts for multiple rides, not only for the subway, but also for buses and water buses.

3.4 Market development

Due to the nature of subway operations, Guangzhou Metro does not have any commercial competitors. Therefore, the development of the market is mainly related to the growth of population. The larger the population base in Guangzhou, the higher the proportion of people choosing to travel by subway, and the broader the Guangzhou subway market will be. Through the S-curve, we can see that the current resident population in Guangzhou is still in the rising stage, so the market development of Guangzhou Metro will also be more advantageous in the future.