Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Electric Vehicles

Technology

Electric Vehicles (EVs) are vehicles that use electrical energy to drive the wheels on road for movement. Its main parts include battery pack, electric motor, power electronic controller, onboard charger, and DC/DC converter among others. It works by converting electrical energy stored in batteries into mechanical energy of the wheels via a motor. Power electronic controller is a part that regulates electrical energy for optimal performance of the motor. Battery is one of the bulky parts of an EV made of lithium ions. Onboard charger converts the alternating current supplied by grids at homes or charging stations into direct current which is compatible to be stored in batteries. DC/DC converter is another part that helps to produce low voltage from high voltage stored in batteries to support parts like lights, dashboard displays of vehicle. Electric Vehicles are cleaner, quieter and have low running costs. One surprising feature is that when brakes are applied in an internal combustion engine vehicle, the motion energy is dissipated into heat to make it stop, while in EV part of this motion energy is converted back into electrical energy to be stored in batteries. It is a booming technology that is in its growth phase whereby few countries have formulated policy for its wide scale promotion and adoption of zero emission vehicles while some are at their incipient stage.

Context

The mode of travel has changed over time from walking, horse drawn carts, steamboats, railroads, trams, buses to high-speed rails, metros. Around one-fourth of global emissions are from transport sector and road transport accounts for 75% of these emissions. Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles emit greenhouse gases (GHG) that have resulted in global warming and climate change phenomenon around the world. Understanding the implications of these emissions, measures were taken to counteract climate change phenomenon like the Paris Agreement of 2015. It is an international treaty to reduce increase in global temperature to 2°C below the pre-industrial level or limit it to 1.5°C. 194 States and European Union have either ratified or acceded the agreement which accounts for 98% of greenhouse gas emissions. Fossil fuel oil reserves are limited to certain nations, are scarce and other countries spend large amount of budget on its imports. All these factors have explored the path for search of alternate energy sources, and EVs are seen as one of the possible solutions for the problem. Today, many countries like China, Canada, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Denmark, France, Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia have formulated policy, strategies, programs for EVs uptake like grants, reduced import duty, reduced registration tax, market share, charging infrastructure construction and manufacturing batteries. All these initiatives on a world scale in case of electric vehicles strongly support that EVs are on a lead to become the next generation of transport mode.

Market Development: History and Current Scenario

The Hungarian Benedictine monk Ányos Jedlik in 1827 built the first simple d.c. electrical machine which he later used to move a small-scale car model. It also states that the first full scale electricity driven carriageway was built by Robert Anderson that used non-rechargeable batteries and could move at a speed of 12km/h. Electric vehicles were invented as early as in mid-1830s in the USA, UK, and the Netherlands.

One-third of vehicles in the United States were EVs in the early 1900s. Modes like steam vehicles required a large container to store water which required to be heated to convert into steam for motion. Sometimes the heating process took as long as 45 minutes during winters, and it also needed refilling making it unsuitable for large travels. The early gasoline vehicles used hand crank to start, needed manual changing of gears which were difficult to operate, and produced noise and smell. These demerits of steam and gasoline cars were absent in electric cars making it famous for short distance travel within cities especially among females. Electricity availability in 1910 made it easier to charge EVs and its popularity grew among people. Ferdinand Porsche developed an electric car called the P1 in 1898, and created the world’s first hybrid car that can run on electricity as well as gasoline. Thomas Edison was also impressed by electric vehicle technology and worked to make more efficient batteries. In 1914, he collaborated with his friend Henry Ford to make affordable electric cars. However, the introduction of Model T in 1908, a gasoline car by Henry Ford was a major setback for electric vehicles. Mass production of Model T resulted in easy availability and cost was low. The electric vehicle was around $1000 costlier than the gasoline in 1912. The development of electric starter by Charles Kettering eliminated the use of hand cranks in gasoline vehicles. The discovery of crude oil in the US reduced the cost of fuels, gasoline stations were at easy reach and electricity were at far reach for rural Americans. All these factors led to disappearance of EVs by 1935.

High prices of gasoline fuels and scarcity in early 1970s compelled nations to search for other sources or technology in transportation. Electric delivery jeeps produced in 1975 in the United States was used as a test program in the postal services. NASA’s electric Lunar rover that drove on moon’s surface in 1971 was an attempt to hype the electric vehicle technology. However, the lower performance of electric vehicles with a speed of 45miles/h and distance covered in single charge which was limited to 40 miles could not compete with the available gasoline vehicles.

The climate change and fuel scarcity in the current time have attracted public and private sectors for improvements and adoption of electric vehicles. However, high upfront costs, lack of charging infrastructures, range anxiety, few models, availability of parts, service stations, consumers awareness and psychology are the factors that has been playing a major role in mass acceptance. Increasing efficiency of batteries, making it compact to run for long distances, and initiatives by government bodies around the world like reducing the upfront costs, building charging infrastructures will certainly increase in its acceptance as a transport mode.

EVs in Australia

In 1899, Henry Sutton was the person to make Australia’s first electric vehicle which had three wheels with a range of 40km and could reach speed of 16km/h. The article also highlights that it was in early twentieth century, taxi services were introduced in Melbourne and Sydney and passengers favored it for smooth and silent drive. Similarly, electric delivery vans for transportation of perishable goods, electric buses and trams were used in urban centers. However, deficit infrastructure, low range, cheap availability of gasoline are the factors that resulted in its decline.

Australia targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emission to 43% below the 2005 level and achieve net zero emission by 2050. One of the solutions is shifting to electric vehicles. On this regard, Australia has produced its National Electric Vehicle Strategy 2023. It states that 19% of Australia’s emission are from transport sector and is believed to be the largest contributor of emission by 2030. The country has a large potential of renewable sources of energy that can be used to power EVs. It also shows possibility of batteries manufacturing due to its large reserve of lithium and other minerals like copper, nickel and magnesium.

The same strategy highlights that the government will strive to give more affordable varieties with measures like incentives, rebate on registration, second hand EVs from public fleet. To assist in long distance travel, the government will set up EV charges on major highways at around 150km interval. The state governments have also formulated its strategies like the NSW Electric Vehicle Strategy (2021), State Electric Vehicle Strategy for Western Australia (2020) stating plans and programs for EVs growth. The driving range of EVs has increased from about 139km in 2011 to about 350km in 2021 with some vehicles going to 550 km in single charge. On an average an Australian drive 38km/day which can be fulfilled by EV models available in the market.

As per a report of State of Electric Vehicles (July 2023), 8.4% of car sales till the time of publication in 2023 were electric vehicles which has shown more than 120% increase in sales compared to 2022. The high sales models are Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3 and BYD Atto 3 accounting 68% of sales. There are currently 91 electric vehicle models available in Australian market of which 74 are cars, 7 ute and 10 vans. It also highlights that there are 967 high power public charges, 438 fast charge locations and more than 120 ultra-fast charging location distributed in 558 locations around the country. The report says that per year cost of fuels for a gasoline car is $2400 whereas it is $400 of electricity for EVs. Moreover, efficiency of electric vehicles is 77% compared to 25% for ICE vehicles. Considering the new technologies, cost saving in long run, grants in upfront cost, more charging infrastructures will definitely help in consumers preference for EVs in Australia.

Policy initiatives and Growth

Policy initiatives like providing subsidy in purchase cost, rebates on registration are the measures to decrease the gap in cost of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles. They are in practice in Norway as early as in 1990s, 2008 in the US and 2014 in China. Similarly, tailpipe carbon-dioxide emission standards adopted by European Union; California’s Zero Emission Vehicle mandates have facilitated the use of EVs. To discourage the use of petrol and diesel, Norway has planned to stop sales of vehicles using such fuels by 2025, UK by 2030 and Japan by mid of 2030s. Availability of charging stations is one of the major problems restraining people to purchase EVs. Germany targets to put 1 million charging facility at the end of this decade. Hyundai will not sell internal combustion engine vehicles by 2040 and Ford will not sell in Europe by 2030. Countries like China, India, Indonesia, Morocco have formulated policies for EV battery or vehicle manufacturing.

The National Electric Vehicle Strategy outlines that all states in Australia have either formulated Electric Vehicle Strategy or Zero Emission Vehicle Strategy or Climate Action Plan to address climate change. Queensland will provide fast charging network at 54 locations in its electric superhighway. The NSW government will contribute $633 million through its electric vehicle strategy providing support for production of EVs and incentives to local bodies to buy EVs. The Western Australia government has come up with a plan to invest $22.9 million to provide 100 charging stations.

Life Cycle Analysis

A technology is generally found to go through phases like birth, growth, saturation and decline. Birth is the phase when the technology enters the market in premature stage showing less sales or adoption. As people get acquainted with the technology there is a sharp sale/adoption within short period of time which is represented by a growth phase. Factors like advancement in technology, high performance, conducive policy environment plays a major role in quick adoption. Then, there comes the saturation phase whereby, the maximum capacity in sales is reached. Some technology shows a decline phase when a new advanced technology paves way into the market and replaces the existing technology. This birth, growth and saturation phase over time shows an S-curve when plotted.

The life cycle of a technology can we well represented by following formula:

S(t)=S_max/[1+exp(-b(t-t_i)]

where in this case,

S(t)= electric vehicle sales at a time

t= time (years)

S_max= maximum number of sales or saturation level

b= coefficient to be estimated

t_i= inflection time (the time at which 50% of saturation sales will be achieved)

The value of b is determined and used to find predicted sales using the above formula.

The data of battery electric vehicle sales in Australia is taken from State of Electric Vehicles 2023. In the year 2011, battery electric vehicle sale was just 49 numbers which slowly grew to 5292 in 2019. In 2021 sales was 17,293 and almost doubled in 2023 at 33,416.

Figure 1: Battery Electric vehicle sales in Australia versus Year

The graph shows that in case of Australia the period from 2011 till 2020 can be taken as birth phase of electric vehicles in Australia. The recorded sales in 2020 was slightly less than in 2019. COVID-19 might be one of the causes for this low value. The sales after 2020 shows a steep increase almost increasing to six and a half times in 2022. EV sales at the end of 2023 were not available in State of Electric Vehicle, 2023. But we can determine from the nature of graph that EV sales are in its growth phase. The saturation of EV sales is a matter of time in future.

There were 21,168,462 motor vehicles registered in Australia till the end of January 2023. If we assume that all the motor vehicles registered in Australia will be replaced by battery electric vehicles, then the inflection time, t_i will be 2035.05, that is by this time half of the registered vehicles will be battery electric vehicles.

Year	Observed Market Electric Vehicle Sales	Predicted Market Sales
2011	49	57
2012	173	100
2013	191	174
2014	371	304
2015	759	532
2016	668	928
2017	1208	1621
2018	1053	2831
2019	5292	4944
2020	5215	8633
2021	17293	15072
2022	33416	26309

Figure 2: Battery electric vehicle actual sales and predicted sales with S_max=21168462, b(intercept)=0.52887 and t_i=2035.045 at RSQ=0.9556

The statistical parameters are:

S_max=21,168,462

b= 0.52887

t_i=2035