Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Jiangsu Province

Introduction to Long-distance Bus

Technological Characteristics

Long-distance bus in China

A long-distance bus is a large bus used for long-distance transportation and has a series of unique technical characteristics. First of all, diesel engines are typically used in long-distance buses because of the great efficiency, high power, low fuel consumption, and high dependability. Second, to lower the weight of the entire vehicle and increase fuel economy, the chassis and body of the coach are composed of lightweight materials such as aluminum alloy and high-strength steel. What is more, in order to increase driving stability and safety, the coach also makes use of a number of cutting-edge technology, including an electronic control system, an automatic gearbox, air suspension, etc. In addition, the seat design and interior layout of the coach is also one of its technical features. The seats of the long-distance buses often employ adjustable, rotatable, and reliable back features to increase riding comfort in order to fulfil the demands of extended trips. In order to accommodate the various demands of passengers, the coach's interior is additionally furnished with comfort amenities including TV, audio, and air conditioning.

Advantages

• Relatively low price: Compared to airplanes and high-speed trains, the fares of the long-distance bus are usually cheaper, so it can meet the needs of those traveling on a budget.
• Flexibility: Long-distance buses can travel on a variety of roads, including some remote areas, whereas airplanes and high-speed trains are usually limited to fixed routes.
• Bring more luggage: Compared with airplanes and high-speed trains, long-distance buses allow passengers to bring more luggage and do not impose too many restrictions on the number and weight of passengers' luggage.
• Enjoy the scenery during the journey: Long-distance buses usually pass through various scenic areas and attractions along the way, so passengers can enjoy the beautiful scenery along the way and have fun on the journey.

Main Markets

Long-distance buses are mainly for the passenger transportation market and originated in Europe and the United States. It gradually became popular in the 20th century, and the main market is for those who need to make cross-city or cross-province trips, including tourist groups, business trips, and visits to friends and relatives. In addition, long-distance buses provide a convenient way to travel for some laborers.

History

Transportation mode before the bus

Jiangsu Nanjing Long-distance bus station

Prior to the invention of the long-distance bus, the most common types of passenger transportation were walking, horseback riding, horse-drawn carriages, boats, and railways. All of these modes of conveyance, however, had their restrictions. Walking and horseback riding were slow and unsuitable for long-distance travel; carriages had limited capacity and were affected by road conditions and climate; ships needed to run along the coast or rivers and could not reach inland areas; trains, despite being quick, required the construction of railway lines, which required large investments, lengthy construction cycles, and difficulty adjusting fixed routes. And because industrialisation and urbanisation were two significant development potential throughout the second part of the nineteenth century. The growth of cities necessitated longer travel routes that were impractical to complete on foot, necessitating a form of transportation that was both quicker and more adaptable to meet demand. The automobile is currently gaining popularity as a convenient form of transportation. The advantages of the automobile are its versatility, speed, adaptability, and capacity to transport a variety of commodities and passengers. As a result, the introduction of the coach became an important option for satisfying people's travel requirements.

Invention of the bus

Horse-drawn

A horse-drawn carriage is a form of transportation that is pulled by horses and used mainly for transporting people and goods over short distances. A horse-drawn carriage usually consists of four wheels, a frame and a seat, and can be used for activities such as intra-city transportation, travel and sports. Horse-drawn carriages have been used for thousands of years in human history, but their use has been greatly reduced with the popularity of the automobile.

Steam

Steam buses were introduced commercially in London in the early 1830s, but steam engines were heavy, cumbersome, and prone to boiler explosions. What's more, despite further technical improvements in the 1870s and 1880s, steam did not take off due to public resistance and regulation.

Internal combustion engine

Carriage

The origin of the vehicle with an internal combustion engine dates back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Karl Benz, a German engineer, created and patented a car with an internal combustion engine in 1885. As comparison to previous modes of transportation such as horse-drawn carriages and horse-drawn autos, the internal combustion engine automobile is faster and more reliable, allowing long-distance transportation chores to be completed more quickly and safely. In addition, internal combustion engine vehicles use fuels such as petroleum, can be refuelled in a very short amount of time, and have relatively low running expenses; these factors have hastened the design and development of long-distance vehicles.

Birthing phase

Early Market Development

Early long-distance passenger transportation in China relied heavily on railways and waterways, such as trains and ships, due to the vastness of the country's land. Unfortunately, these forms of transportation have limitations, such as restricted capacity, set routes, and lengthy travel times, which prohibited them from fully satisfying the market demand for long-distance passenger transportation. Hence, individuals began to investigate alternative forms of transportation. China's first diesel bus was introduced in 1926, as the popularity of buses grew internationally. Initially, however, the long-distance passenger transportation business developed slowly due to the delayed development of Chinese roadways and poor road conditions. As the country focused on infrastructure development, it constructed and enhanced the existing road network, causing the long-distance bus to become the primary means of long-distance transit.

Policy in the 'Birth Phase'

• Industrialization strategy: In the 1950s, the Chinese government started putting its industrialization plan into action. It also raised investment in the vehicle manufacturing sector and gave the long-distance bus sector both financial and technical support.
• Building transportation infrastructure: The Chinese government aggressively encouraged the building of roads, bridges, and other forms of transportation infrastructure in order to satisfy the demands of the long-distance transportation sector and increase transportation productivity.
• Long-distance bus firms have been formed by the government to increase the productivity and security of the transportation sector. These businesses offer associated services like tourism and logistics in addition to long-distance passenger transportation.
• Price control: The government regulates the prices of coach transportation to ensure reasonableness and fairness while protecting the rights of passengers.
• Policy incentives: The government provides tax incentives, loan support and other policies for the long-distance bus transportation industry to attract more investment and businesses to enter this market.

Growth Phase

Public Sector Contribution

• The public sector is largely responsible for strategy and planning, regulating and administering the long-distance bus industry, and providing the necessary infrastructure and service support for the growth of long-distance buses.
• To protect the safety and rights of passengers, the public sector controls the operation of long-distance buses through the implementation of pertinent legislation and regulations. To assure the safety and quality of long-distance passenger transportation, for instance, China's Road Transportation Rules establish licencing criteria and operating standards for long-distance passenger transportation, among other things.
• Long-distance passenger transportation infrastructure development is also significantly influenced by the public sector. For instance, the government has invested heavily in the construction of motorways, bus stations, and other infrastructure in order to facilitate long-distance passenger transit.
• The public sector supports long-distance passenger transportation businesses with financial assistance to aid in the development. For instance, the government will establish special funds to provide loans and financial support to long-distance passenger transport companies that qualify.

Private Sector Contribution

• The impact of private enterprise on the growth of long-distance bus service is mostly reflected in the following aspects:
• Encouraging market competition: The long-distance bus market has become more competitive due to the rise of private companies that have made significant efforts to provide better service and quality. Intense competition has led to technological advancements and enhanced service quality in the long-distance bus business.
• Private organisations are frequently more focused on operational efficiency, improving operational efficiency and decreasing costs through innovations in management, technology, and operations, while providing superior quality products and services.
• Private enterprises continue to drive the development of the long-distance bus industry through ongoing technological and operational innovation. Due to their flexible operations and modern management models, private enterprises are more likely to stay informed of the most recent technology advancements and industry trends, hence promoting the industry's continuing growth.
• Private enterprises devote more capital and resources in brand development, marketing, and product innovation in order to expand the market and attract more customers. These initiatives foster the quick growth of the market and the size of the industry.

Policy Issues

The long-distance bus in other country

The process of development was accompanied by different policy issues. In the first stage(Government-led stage), the government-led policy making reflected the advantages of state-owned enterprises and attached importance to public interest and social stability. Although the concession license agreements issued by the public sector could curb high fares, there were also problems of waste of resources and inefficiency to a certain extent, which limited the profitability of enterprises. Therefore, at this stage, the government gradually releases some operating authority to private enterprises and reduces intervention in pricing. In the second stage(Private sector-led stage), the government gradually liberalized the market, and after the battalion sector entered the market, some problems emerged, such as price war, unsafe driving, and abuse of power. The government also took targeted measures, such as: strengthening supervision, regulating market order, and raising the entry threshold of the industry.

Mature Phase

In the early 1990s, long-distance bus transportation in Jiangsu Province entered a mature period. With the growth of the economy and urbanisation throughout this time, the preferences for transport modes changed. The government also started to progressively encourage urban traffic development and public transportation, which improved the effectiveness and standard of coach operations. With the cohabitation of private and state-owned firms during this time, the long-distance bus market in Jiangsu Province increasingly standardised and professionalised, and the market competitiveness grew over time. By improving the regulation of long-distance bus safety, service quality, and cost, the government started to tighten up the oversight and administration of long-distance bus transportation. At the same time, Jiangsu Province also actively promoted the construction of transportation infrastructure, especially the construction and improvement of expressways, thus improving the speed and efficiency of long-distance bus transportation. During this period, the mileage of highway in Jiangsu Province also increased, and reached 196 km in 1992. There were, however, a number of "locked-in" policies during this period:

• There were restrictions on the participation of private enterprises in the road passenger transportation industry.
• Long-distance bus routes, rates, and operation hours were rigorously regulated, preventing businesses from developing their own business plans.
• To accommodate the rising demand for passenger transportation, the number and scale of long-distance bus operators were severely restricted.

These "locked-in" policies impeded the growth and innovation of the long-distance bus business, resulting in a lack of competition and innovation. Not until China began to gradually liberalize its control and regulations on the long-distance passenger transportation market and private firms were granted greater market autonomy was the coach industry able to thrive and grow steadily.

Opportunity to “Re-invent” the mode

Even though there are several modes of transportation available today, such as planes and high-speed trains, these models all affect the selection rate of long-distance bus travel. Nonetheless, intercity bus travel remains a common means of transportation. Moreover, as awareness of global climate change and environmental protection grows, traditional fuel vehicles are considered as an increasingly unsustainable means of transportation. In addition, as an important choice for long-distance travel, the long-distance bus must pursue environmentally responsible and sustainable development plans. The shift from conventional fuel-powered coaches to electric coaches must therefore occur. In addition to being more eco-friendly, electric coaches also answer the desire for smarter, more comfortable, and safer long-distance travel. This transformation will inevitably be required by sustainable development, despite the fact that it may be costly and time-consuming.

Quantitative Analysis

Data collected in the "Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics - Jiangsu Provincial Statistical Yearbook" were used to fit the passenger volume of road traffic (coaches) in Jiangsu Province from 1978 to 2021 to determine the three stages of coach development: birth, growth and maturity. The three-parameter function fitted to the data is:

• $S(t)=S_{max}/[1+exp(-b(t-t_{i}))]$

Where:

• $S(t)$ is the status measure (e.g. Passenger-km traveled)
• $t$ is time (usually in years)
• $t_{i}$ is the inflection time (year in which$1/2S_{max}$ is achieved)
• $S_{\max }$ is saturation status level, (Choose the maximum length of the streetcar system that you have recorded in the data).
• $b$ is a coefficient to estimated

Due to the limited time available for the data used, estimation using Ordinary Least Squares Regression is required for K and b. The coefficients were estimated using the following formula:

• $Y=bX+c$

Where:

• $Y=\ln(Passagers/(S_{max}-Passagers))$
• $X=Year$

Jiangsu Province

Number of passager

Jiangsu Province model results

Variable	Description	Value
$S_{\max }$	Saturation Status Level	25536
$b$	Coefficient	0.090
$r^{2}$	R-squared	0.866
$t_{i}$	Inflection Time	2005

The prediction has a good fit. The total mileage of all systems shows a clear growth and maturity life cycle phase. The inflection time is 2005 which means from 1928 to 2005 is growth phase of long-distance bus and entering mature phase after 2005. Moerover, the number of passengers was 250 million until 2012, when it reached its peak. Signs of decline began to appear in 2012 and beyond.