Summary

 

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Fifteen views of evolution: When plotted on a logarithmic graph, 15 separate lists of key events in history and prehistory are claimed by Ray Kurzweil to show an exponential trend. Graphed by Ray Kurzweil, based on lists compiled by Theodore Modis, who "attempted to develop a precise mathematical law that governs the evolution of change and complexity in the Universe". To reduce bias, Modis compiled thirteen multiple independent lists of major events in the history of biology and technology from the sources listed below. The lists have between 12 and 47 events, and most of them have between 15 and 20 events. Kurzweil also plots two lists from Modis. While Kurzweil used Modis' resources, and Modis' work was around accelerating change, Modis' distanced himself from Kurzweil's thesis of there being a "technological singularity" ^[1].

Lists

The first 14 lists are included in the following source:

T.Modis, Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change archive copy at the Wayback Machine, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 69, No 4, 2002

1. John R. Skoyles, Dorian Sagan, Up From Dragons: The Evolution of Human Intelligence, Ballantine Books, 1989, exact dates provided by Modis. 47 events.
2. American Museum of Natural History, exact dates provided by Modis. 20 events.
3. The data set "important events in the history of life" in the Encyclopædia Britannica. 16 events.
4. Educational Resources in Astronomy and Planetary Science (University of Arizona) (book reference link is offline but see Internet Archive). 17 events.
5. Paul D. Boyer, biochemist, winner of 1997 Nobel prize, private communications, exact dates provided by Modis. 25 events.
6. J.D. Barrow and J. Silk, "The Structure of the Early Universe", Scientific American, 242.4 (April 1980):118-28. 23 events.
7. Jean Heidmann, Cosmic Odyssey: Observatoire de Paris, trans. Simon Mitton (Cambridge University Press, 1989). 12 events.
8. J. William Schopf, ed., Major Events in the History of Life, symposium, 1991. 18 events.
9. Philip Tobias, Major Events in the History of Mankind", chap.7 in Schopf, Major Events in the History of Life'. 23 events.
10. David Nielson, Lecture on Molecular Evolution I" (archive, original) and "Lecture Notes for Evolution II" (archive, original). 22 events.
11. Göran Burenhult, ed. The First Humans: Humans Origins and History to 10,000 BC, HarperSanFrancisco, 1993. 23 events.
12. D. Johanson and B. Edgar, From Lucy to Language, Siemens & Schuster, 1996. 14 events.
13. Richard Coren, The Evolutionary Trajectory: The Growth of Information in the History and Future of Earth, World Futures General Evolution Studies, Gordon and Breach,, 1998. 13 events.
14. Theodore Modis, Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change (archive, original), Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 69, No 4, 2002. 25 events.
15. **Theodore Modis. The Limits of Complexity and Change. The Futurist, (May-June 2003) 26-32.[2]. 28 events. **Note: Does not appear in source of 14 other lists.

Reference

• Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near : When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking Adult, 2005, ISBN 0670033847. Graph appears on p.19, description is p.18-20 plus notes on p.501-502.

Citations

1. ↑ Modis, Theodore. The Singularity Myth. [1] archive copy at the Wayback Machine

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Note: moved from en-Wikipedia, where it was first uploaded by me around July 5, 2005. --Piotr Konieczny aka Prokonsul Piotrus ^Talk 13:05, 2 January 2008 (UTC)